Each year, the two weeks leading up to the Academy Awards (aka The Oscars) are two of the biggest weeks for home rentals and indie film ticket sales. That so, we figured we’d take the opportunity to share with you our predictions and hopes. And, of course, we’re going to tell you whom we think should win each award, be them a nominee or not.
Best Cinematography: Most years the Best Cinematography award is fairly predictable, but not this time around. We have three of the all-time greats – Janusz Kaminski (War Horse), Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life) and Robert Richardson (Hugo) – facing off. While there’s a good chance that the way-too-cheesy War Horse will get the statue, we’re betting on seven-time nominee Richardson, who photographed the most beautiful 3D movie of all-time, for the win. That said, we really, really want Lubezki to take it. He’s been nominated five times in the past, yet has never won. Tree is not just Lubezki’s best work to date, but, we think, one of the most beautiful looking films we’ve seen. Like, ever.
Best Animated Feature: We get the feeling that the surprisingly good Kung Fu Panda 2 will take the statue this year. It grossed almost $700 million worldwide, received good reviews, was a hit at Cannes (not even kidding) and features a script that was polished by none other than Charlie Kaufman himself. That said, we’d like to see Gore Verbinski’s BAFTA-winning Rango take the win.
Best Editor: Thelma Schoonmaker, Martin Scorsese’s go-to editor, will very likely win her fourth editing Oscar for her work on the technically brilliant Hugo. She’s one of the best of all-time, and tackled Hugo’s hugely ambitious production with impressive grace. Then again, there’s also the chance that David Fincher’s epic, perfectly crafted The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo takes home a handful of the technical awards. Us? We think a non-nominee named Paul Hirsch, who edited Brad Bird’s overlooked Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, did the best editing work last year.
Best Documentary: A number of outstanding docs were overlooked this year by the Academy, including one of the best films of the year, and our personal pick for Best Documentary, Michael Rappaport’s Beats, Rhymes and Life. Of the nominees, it’s kind of a toss-up, but we’re gonna go with the boring If a Tree Falls.
Best Foreign Film: Easy, Iran’s A Separation will win. And it should. The question is: why wasn’t Pedro Almodovar’s brilliant The Skin I Live In even submitted for consideration?
Best Actor/Actress: This year’s set of acting noms are totally bogus. I’ve dug through the IMDB archives, looking at the noms from each year, and can confidently say this year’s set of nominees are as off as ever. For starters, Kirsten Dunst gave the all-around performance of the year in Melancholia, and she’s not even nominated. And Shame’s Michael Fassbender and Drive’s Ryan Gosling gave the two best male performances of the year, yet are also not nominated. What gives? The Best Actor race is a cheesy match-up between marketable actors Brad Pitt (Moneyball) and George Clooney (The Descendants). Both have won many other awards this year and Pitt will likely win on Oscar night. And when he does, the camera will pan over to Clooney, who will be clapping with tears in his eyes, happy for his tabloid pal. The problem is, both have given much better performances that they weren’t nominated for. Oh, and, of course, there’s a chance that the mediocre The Artist will sweep the show, and lead actor Jean Dujardin will upset Pitt and Clooney. The Best Actress race is tough to call this year, but we think Meryl Streep, who has had 13 nominations since last winning 30 years ago, will finally get that third statue. That said, we really hope that Michelle Williams’ amazing performance in My Week With Marilyn takes the cake. Neither actresses – both doing impressions of dead people – came close to the performance Dunst gave.
Best Supporting Actor/Actress: Octavia Spencer will almost certainly win for the fundamentally terrible The Help. The two best Supporting Actress performances of the year – Charlotte Gainsbourg in Melancholia and Carey Mulligan in Shame – weren’t nominated. We’re pulling for Jessica Chastain to surprise, but more so for her performances in Take Shelter and The Tree of Life than for her role in The Help, for which she’s nominated. Berenice Bejo (The Artist) could also surprise. As for Best Supporting Actor, the great Christopher Plummer (Beginners) is a lock – call it a well deserved Career Award. We’re rooting for Kenneth Branagh (Marilyn), and believe he’s the gave the hands down best supporting performance of the year.
Best Original/Adapted Screenplay: Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris will most likely upset Michel Hazanavicius’ The Artist for Best Original Screenplay. Both are gimmicky, if enjoyable, films. Us? We liked Terrence Malick’s poetic The Tree of Life, but realize that most people don’t watch movies to be cerebrally challenged. Best Adapted Screenplay will almost certainly go to Alexander Payne’s The Descendants, though we think non-nominee Marilyn deserves the painted steel.
Best Director: Our favorite award of the night will most likely go to The Artist director Michel Hazanavicius. Boo!! If not Hazanavicius, probably Scorsese. We think, without a doubt, that The Tree of Life auteur Terrence Malick deserves the award. And if he somehow wins, we’ll write a letter of apology to the Academy for all the terrible – though obviously very true – things we’ve said about them over the last decade or so.
Best Picture: The Artsit, at this point, is pretty much a lock. And damn does that bum us out. Sure, it’s a fun ode to old Hollywood, but it’s just not that great. I could give you a million-word essay about why we feel this way, but we’re running out of space. The best film of 2011 was, far and away, Malick’s challenging and masterful The Tree of Life. (We could write you a two million word essay as to why, but, again, no room.) If The Artist and Tree both don’t win, we’re pulling for Hugo. If the Hallmark-y War Horse or outright awful Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close win, we’re done with this Oscar business once and for all.
Be sure to check out our 2011 Year End movie feature HERE. Send your picks and predictions to gregwlocke@gmail.com, and stay tuned for our post-Oscar ranting and rambling.
